The following report was completed by statistics students utilizing a version of tPP dataset as of March 13, 2019. These analyses are focused on developing models for future use, and the interpretations and conclusions they contain reflect a dataset still in development, and only a superficial engagement with the wider literature on political violence. We continue to expand, improve and refine the data, and as such, these analyses should be seen as preliminary and subject to change. This views expressed in these reports belong solely to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the findings of tPP team and are subject to further inquiry and revision.
Below you will find the non-technical analytical summary and selected visualizations for Team #2 (Ideological Analysis) of 5.
This report was authored by Lesi Wei, Lexi Gelinas, Siqi Zhang & Yiduo Yang. To download the complete report, click here.
Introduction
The Prosecution Project (tPP) has collected data on cases in which individuals or groups engage in political violence that results in a felony or has been described through State speech as having a connection to a terrorist or extremist group with a political agenda. Specifically, this analysis is looking at several key variables in the relationship between ideology and the political violence itself.
Results
Ideology and Lethality
There are more instances of political violence that do not result in a death, but of the ones that do, Rightist groups commit more of these attacks than other groups.
Ideology and People vs Property
Salafi, Jihadist, or Islamic groups commit more attacks against no direct target than any other group. Rightist groups have more cases in which they attack property than people.
Tactic and Physical Target
Threat/support of an organization is the most used tactic and has the most cases in the online community and against unknown targets.
Ideology and Ideological Target
Salafi, Jihadist, or Islamic groups have more cases in which they attack unspecified ideological targets more than any other groups.
Ideology and State Speech
No group affiliation and Leftist groups have more cases in which they use state speech than the other groups
Tactic and Group Affiliation & FTO Affiliation
Salafi, Jihadist, or Islamist individuals tend to have strong tactic of threat/support of an organization, and the rightist tend to external device as their tactic. And group that affiliation with an FTO, individuals tend to provide material/financial support to the terrorist organization. No affiliation with an FTO, leads to more use of an external device.
Ideology and Location
Salafi, Jihadist, or Islamist Individuals commit more attacks in the East Coast, West Coast, and Midwest areas in the United States. Rightist groups commit more attacks in the Central area of United States. Leftist only have two states in which they commit the most political violence.
Conclusions
Not all groups of categorical variables have obvious trends, only few categories have some significant trends under each variable based on the plots. The deeper analysis will examine this in the technical report part.
References
McHugh, M. (2013). The Chi-square test of independence. Biochemia Medica 23 (2) 143-149.
R Core Team (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/ .
